2010年8月3日火曜日
Getting older
I can't believe how bad I felt exercising today. I felt like I had no power. The worst part is that I was overweight by at 148. That's not any worse than usual, but I've been cutting back somewhat, and I just felt so bad today... Now I'm faced with a serious choice. What do I give up? 1)Birthday Cake 2)My goal weight at 145. There really is no other choice. I worked out every day last week. The next sacrifice is changing my diet. Doing what I am now is not getting me where I need to be... And thus the real sick part of getting older begins.
2010年5月27日木曜日
The Happy Husband
The whole home filleth up with cheer
When my wife has bought me beer
In my ears I hear carillons
When I hear she bought me Killian's.
When my wife has bought me beer
In my ears I hear carillons
When I hear she bought me Killian's.
2010年2月26日金曜日
Dentures
Today on the news there was a discussion of a woman who couldn't afford dentures and so had resorted to wearing the ill-fitting dentures of her late sister. While the intended reaction was disgust, the right-winger in our cafeteria stated rather that that was an excuse since dentures can be quite cheaply purchased. I on the other hand saw the problem not so much as an excuse, but a non-issue. Of course you wore your late sister's dentures... What's wrong with that? She doesn't need them anymore. Of course I followed up with "Nothing wrong with looking for a gift mouth in the hearse."
There was no laughter. No comment. Come on... That had to be the best line of the day...
There was no laughter. No comment. Come on... That had to be the best line of the day...
Try Poison
On 2/24/10 at the zerohedge blog there was an article, titled If I were Federal Reserve Chairman... which continues: "I think I’d shoot myself. [Laughing] I don’t think I’d go to work in the morning."
His point was that every action the Fed chairman is taking and could take to try to solve the problem is helpless against the natural outcome of prior events.
What was interesting about the article was it seemed a direct reference to the dialogue between the Cloud General and the Big Goose Dummy from Chuang Tzu:
Big Goose Dummy: "What throws the warp of heaven into chaos, what rebels against the fact of things? What can keep mysterious heaven from accomplishing its ends? What scatters herds of beasts, makes birds cry in the night, and brings bad luck to bugs? I have the idea that it's excess ruling humankind"
Cloud General: "What can I do about that?"
Big Goose Dummy: "I have an idea: poison. Or take off and fly home."
In both cases the point was that events will follow their course, and attempting to impose our will and judgements upon them will only lead to disorder. The obvious question then, is what would a philosophy of economics based on this system be like?
That is the problem. Chuang Tzu frequently speaks of aspiring to the natural condition of mankind, but the values thereof don't seem economic at all. In another chapter he describes safeguarding one's wealth as making it easier for a big thief to carry it all off at once. It hardly seems to offer sound specific advice for non-allegorical situations.
In short while the Chuang Tzu is challenging and inspiring, it doesn't offer much advice to a fed chairman (except quit and go home). Applying the lessons to my own life is another matter entirely.
His point was that every action the Fed chairman is taking and could take to try to solve the problem is helpless against the natural outcome of prior events.
What was interesting about the article was it seemed a direct reference to the dialogue between the Cloud General and the Big Goose Dummy from Chuang Tzu:
Big Goose Dummy: "What throws the warp of heaven into chaos, what rebels against the fact of things? What can keep mysterious heaven from accomplishing its ends? What scatters herds of beasts, makes birds cry in the night, and brings bad luck to bugs? I have the idea that it's excess ruling humankind"
Cloud General: "What can I do about that?"
Big Goose Dummy: "I have an idea: poison. Or take off and fly home."
In both cases the point was that events will follow their course, and attempting to impose our will and judgements upon them will only lead to disorder. The obvious question then, is what would a philosophy of economics based on this system be like?
That is the problem. Chuang Tzu frequently speaks of aspiring to the natural condition of mankind, but the values thereof don't seem economic at all. In another chapter he describes safeguarding one's wealth as making it easier for a big thief to carry it all off at once. It hardly seems to offer sound specific advice for non-allegorical situations.
In short while the Chuang Tzu is challenging and inspiring, it doesn't offer much advice to a fed chairman (except quit and go home). Applying the lessons to my own life is another matter entirely.
2009年11月3日火曜日
Bank Failures
So here is an image of the information on FDIC bank failure trends.
There are a few trends which I see (Disclaimer: I don't know anything about banks and economics).
#1 Washington Mutual had to hurt. At 307B in assets it is literally off the charts. Nothing else has come close to it. That had to hurt the FDIC.
#2 The financial crisis didn't show in bank failures. At least among banks the damage was contained to a few big bad apples (WAMU 9-08, IndyMac 7-08, Downey Bank+Franklin Bank 11-08).
#3 In 2009 banks have been getting hurt, and the pain is spreading. The number of banks failing was highest in October and August. Assets were worst in August, then October. The moving average ends solidly up. (Bank #'s not adjusted for FDIC Fridays, # of Fridays= 8=4, 9=4, 10=5)
From a non-savant's perspective the crisis in finances is getting worse. The capital market supposedly has gotten better and home sales are improving, but that's not showing up in bank failures. The WSJ also says that Commercial Real Estate is looking sicker, which will be another shock to the system.
It's also interesting that the assets per failed bank are increasing as well. For the last three months they have averaged over 1B. GDP grew in the latest quarter, but with consumer spending, jobs and banks all pointed in the wrong direction, does it really look like the beginning of a recovery? Jobs are usually late, but banks and consumer spending? Something smells.
PS: CIT failed 11/2/09 at 71B in assets.
There are a few trends which I see (Disclaimer: I don't know anything about banks and economics).
#1 Washington Mutual had to hurt. At 307B in assets it is literally off the charts. Nothing else has come close to it. That had to hurt the FDIC.
#2 The financial crisis didn't show in bank failures. At least among banks the damage was contained to a few big bad apples (WAMU 9-08, IndyMac 7-08, Downey Bank+Franklin Bank 11-08).
#3 In 2009 banks have been getting hurt, and the pain is spreading. The number of banks failing was highest in October and August. Assets were worst in August, then October. The moving average ends solidly up. (Bank #'s not adjusted for FDIC Fridays, # of Fridays= 8=4, 9=4, 10=5)
From a non-savant's perspective the crisis in finances is getting worse. The capital market supposedly has gotten better and home sales are improving, but that's not showing up in bank failures. The WSJ also says that Commercial Real Estate is looking sicker, which will be another shock to the system.
It's also interesting that the assets per failed bank are increasing as well. For the last three months they have averaged over 1B. GDP grew in the latest quarter, but with consumer spending, jobs and banks all pointed in the wrong direction, does it really look like the beginning of a recovery? Jobs are usually late, but banks and consumer spending? Something smells.
PS: CIT failed 11/2/09 at 71B in assets.
2009年11月1日日曜日
Surrounded by idiots
So the other day at work I was casually eavesdropping on a conversation in the office, and the outspoken right-winger was going on about the EU outlawing eating meat. Now I had never heard of that, and the whole concept was so patently ridiculous that I joined in and told him so. He insisted that it was true, and moreover that there was a school where they were now serving meatless Mondays. Now the conversation was sliding down a further slippery slope, and I spoke up saying that eating meat at every meal is clearly having negative effects on Americans health. Not only is meat being processed in an unsafe manner leading to thousands of hospitalizations per year, but the number one cause of death is... At this point I deferred to the insurance dept. lead of our company who chimed in "Medical coding errors, and physician mistakes". NO! The answer is Heart Disease. Sure, if you believe government statistics, I was reprimanded. My god. I am totally surrounded by idiots. I can understand giving some extra credence to non-governmental statistics, and trying to check multiple sources, but Thursday just ended with a face-palm. That is not what scientific inquiry and skepticism are about...
2009年10月14日水曜日
On Trial
So the other week I finished up being a juror. It was actually really neat. The best part was I got to miss our company's entire budget review process with pay. Sweet.
The worst part was that I couldn't discuss the trial the whole time, but I appreciated that more and more as the trial proceeded. I realize now that the purpose of having jury trials really is to judge the facts. I knew that before, but hearing the case, it really was clear that there were good arguments to be made for both sides, and it wouldn't be right for a deus ex machina ending where Judge Judy just points to the parties and says you win you lose.
Also many people at my company were asking what it was about, but I insisted that I couldn't give away any details. All I said was that the facts seemed very evenly balanced.
The accuser came to the stand, and outlined a brutal story of how she had been assaulted in her own home. In his opening remarks the defense attorney had outlined his side of the story which was that his client had been at home all night and seen there by three people.
It was hard to judge because there was DNA evidence. It was undeniable that the two had had sex recently. On the other hand I found her narrative difficult to believe. He had walked from his house at 4 AM raped her for 8 hours, then disappeared in the middle of town. Despite her screams for help no neighbors heard her, except for someone who knocked on her door at 4 AM during the rape then disappeared. Additionally she escaped from him at one point but was recaptured.
In the end, I looked through the evidence slowly. I had been leaning towards acquittal already. The only evidence there was for him being there that night was her testimony. On the other hand he had testimony from his two housemates that he had arrived home.
I really wanted to see some proof one way or the other. That was what was most interesting about the jury trial, because there is no proof. Either you believe one story or the other. On the one hand you had the DNA evidence they had sex, and her story. On the other you had his convict brother saying they had sex Thursday, as well as his story that he was out drinking and driving all night with his convicted felon friend while he was on probation.
Honestly I thought they were both bad people, and I said so in the jury room. They said I shouldn't judge, but I thought that was pretty hypocritical seeing as how we had each been selected to sit in judgement. Kind of the point don'cha think?
The rest of the jury was already doubtful enough to walk out with a verdict, but I wanted to look things over. Ultimately we deliberated for about 2 hours, and I finally got the last doubt I need from the phone records. See one of the big contentions at the trial was that he had been playing with her phone during the rapes, which explained why many calls (of an admittedly short nature) had been logged during those hours. Of course there were three intermissions long enough for rapes to have been committed (I would only have needed 5 minutes). What decided it was that his phone was offline for a 5 hour period, and hers was offline for a five hour period, but the two five hour periods were two hours offset from eachother. That was enough to raise doubt in my mind that they were being operated by one person the entire time. It just didn't make sense. Not that the story was strong enough to convict on, but just nothing added up.
So we found innocent, and the dude bawled, which was not surprising seeing as he was going to go up for 20 to life, I later heard. Worst of all I can't go to my favorite gas station because that's where she works. I guess we all came out losers in the end.
Except for me. I got $100.00. Sweet.
The worst part was that I couldn't discuss the trial the whole time, but I appreciated that more and more as the trial proceeded. I realize now that the purpose of having jury trials really is to judge the facts. I knew that before, but hearing the case, it really was clear that there were good arguments to be made for both sides, and it wouldn't be right for a deus ex machina ending where Judge Judy just points to the parties and says you win you lose.
Also many people at my company were asking what it was about, but I insisted that I couldn't give away any details. All I said was that the facts seemed very evenly balanced.
The accuser came to the stand, and outlined a brutal story of how she had been assaulted in her own home. In his opening remarks the defense attorney had outlined his side of the story which was that his client had been at home all night and seen there by three people.
It was hard to judge because there was DNA evidence. It was undeniable that the two had had sex recently. On the other hand I found her narrative difficult to believe. He had walked from his house at 4 AM raped her for 8 hours, then disappeared in the middle of town. Despite her screams for help no neighbors heard her, except for someone who knocked on her door at 4 AM during the rape then disappeared. Additionally she escaped from him at one point but was recaptured.
In the end, I looked through the evidence slowly. I had been leaning towards acquittal already. The only evidence there was for him being there that night was her testimony. On the other hand he had testimony from his two housemates that he had arrived home.
I really wanted to see some proof one way or the other. That was what was most interesting about the jury trial, because there is no proof. Either you believe one story or the other. On the one hand you had the DNA evidence they had sex, and her story. On the other you had his convict brother saying they had sex Thursday, as well as his story that he was out drinking and driving all night with his convicted felon friend while he was on probation.
Honestly I thought they were both bad people, and I said so in the jury room. They said I shouldn't judge, but I thought that was pretty hypocritical seeing as how we had each been selected to sit in judgement. Kind of the point don'cha think?
The rest of the jury was already doubtful enough to walk out with a verdict, but I wanted to look things over. Ultimately we deliberated for about 2 hours, and I finally got the last doubt I need from the phone records. See one of the big contentions at the trial was that he had been playing with her phone during the rapes, which explained why many calls (of an admittedly short nature) had been logged during those hours. Of course there were three intermissions long enough for rapes to have been committed (I would only have needed 5 minutes). What decided it was that his phone was offline for a 5 hour period, and hers was offline for a five hour period, but the two five hour periods were two hours offset from eachother. That was enough to raise doubt in my mind that they were being operated by one person the entire time. It just didn't make sense. Not that the story was strong enough to convict on, but just nothing added up.
So we found innocent, and the dude bawled, which was not surprising seeing as he was going to go up for 20 to life, I later heard. Worst of all I can't go to my favorite gas station because that's where she works. I guess we all came out losers in the end.
Except for me. I got $100.00. Sweet.
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