2009年11月3日火曜日

Bank Failures

So here is an image of the information on FDIC bank failure trends.



There are a few trends which I see (Disclaimer: I don't know anything about banks and economics).

#1 Washington Mutual had to hurt. At 307B in assets it is literally off the charts. Nothing else has come close to it. That had to hurt the FDIC.

#2 The financial crisis didn't show in bank failures. At least among banks the damage was contained to a few big bad apples (WAMU 9-08, IndyMac 7-08, Downey Bank+Franklin Bank 11-08).

#3 In 2009 banks have been getting hurt, and the pain is spreading. The number of banks failing was highest in October and August. Assets were worst in August, then October. The moving average ends solidly up. (Bank #'s not adjusted for FDIC Fridays, # of Fridays= 8=4, 9=4, 10=5)

From a non-savant's perspective the crisis in finances is getting worse. The capital market supposedly has gotten better and home sales are improving, but that's not showing up in bank failures. The WSJ also says that Commercial Real Estate is looking sicker, which will be another shock to the system.

It's also interesting that the assets per failed bank are increasing as well. For the last three months they have averaged over 1B. GDP grew in the latest quarter, but with consumer spending, jobs and banks all pointed in the wrong direction, does it really look like the beginning of a recovery? Jobs are usually late, but banks and consumer spending? Something smells.


PS: CIT failed 11/2/09 at 71B in assets.

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