Bank Failures

So here is an image of the information on FDIC bank failure trends.



There are a few trends which I see (Disclaimer: I don't know anything about banks and economics).

#1 Washington Mutual had to hurt. At 307B in assets it is literally off the charts. Nothing else has come close to it. That had to hurt the FDIC.

#2 The financial crisis didn't show in bank failures. At least among banks the damage was contained to a few big bad apples (WAMU 9-08, IndyMac 7-08, Downey Bank+Franklin Bank 11-08).

#3 In 2009 banks have been getting hurt, and the pain is spreading. The number of banks failing was highest in October and August. Assets were worst in August, then October. The moving average ends solidly up. (Bank #'s not adjusted for FDIC Fridays, # of Fridays= 8=4, 9=4, 10=5)

From a non-savant's perspective the crisis in finances is getting worse. The capital market supposedly has gotten better and home sales are improving, but that's not showing up in bank failures. The WSJ also says that Commercial Real Estate is looking sicker, which will be another shock to the system.

It's also interesting that the assets per failed bank are increasing as well. For the last three months they have averaged over 1B. GDP grew in the latest quarter, but with consumer spending, jobs and banks all pointed in the wrong direction, does it really look like the beginning of a recovery? Jobs are usually late, but banks and consumer spending? Something smells.


PS: CIT failed 11/2/09 at 71B in assets.

Surrounded by idiots

So the other day at work I was casually eavesdropping on a conversation in the office, and the outspoken right-winger was going on about the EU outlawing eating meat. Now I had never heard of that, and the whole concept was so patently ridiculous that I joined in and told him so. He insisted that it was true, and moreover that there was a school where they were now serving meatless Mondays. Now the conversation was sliding down a further slippery slope, and I spoke up saying that eating meat at every meal is clearly having negative effects on Americans health. Not only is meat being processed in an unsafe manner leading to thousands of hospitalizations per year, but the number one cause of death is... At this point I deferred to the insurance dept. lead of our company who chimed in "Medical coding errors, and physician mistakes". NO! The answer is Heart Disease. Sure, if you believe government statistics, I was reprimanded. My god. I am totally surrounded by idiots. I can understand giving some extra credence to non-governmental statistics, and trying to check multiple sources, but Thursday just ended with a face-palm. That is not what scientific inquiry and skepticism are about...

On Trial

So the other week I finished up being a juror. It was actually really neat. The best part was I got to miss our company's entire budget review process with pay. Sweet.

The worst part was that I couldn't discuss the trial the whole time, but I appreciated that more and more as the trial proceeded. I realize now that the purpose of having jury trials really is to judge the facts. I knew that before, but hearing the case, it really was clear that there were good arguments to be made for both sides, and it wouldn't be right for a deus ex machina ending where Judge Judy just points to the parties and says you win you lose.

Also many people at my company were asking what it was about, but I insisted that I couldn't give away any details. All I said was that the facts seemed very evenly balanced.

The accuser came to the stand, and outlined a brutal story of how she had been assaulted in her own home. In his opening remarks the defense attorney had outlined his side of the story which was that his client had been at home all night and seen there by three people.

It was hard to judge because there was DNA evidence. It was undeniable that the two had had sex recently. On the other hand I found her narrative difficult to believe. He had walked from his house at 4 AM raped her for 8 hours, then disappeared in the middle of town. Despite her screams for help no neighbors heard her, except for someone who knocked on her door at 4 AM during the rape then disappeared. Additionally she escaped from him at one point but was recaptured.

In the end, I looked through the evidence slowly. I had been leaning towards acquittal already. The only evidence there was for him being there that night was her testimony. On the other hand he had testimony from his two housemates that he had arrived home.

I really wanted to see some proof one way or the other. That was what was most interesting about the jury trial, because there is no proof. Either you believe one story or the other. On the one hand you had the DNA evidence they had sex, and her story. On the other you had his convict brother saying they had sex Thursday, as well as his story that he was out drinking and driving all night with his convicted felon friend while he was on probation.

Honestly I thought they were both bad people, and I said so in the jury room. They said I shouldn't judge, but I thought that was pretty hypocritical seeing as how we had each been selected to sit in judgement. Kind of the point don'cha think?

The rest of the jury was already doubtful enough to walk out with a verdict, but I wanted to look things over. Ultimately we deliberated for about 2 hours, and I finally got the last doubt I need from the phone records. See one of the big contentions at the trial was that he had been playing with her phone during the rapes, which explained why many calls (of an admittedly short nature) had been logged during those hours. Of course there were three intermissions long enough for rapes to have been committed (I would only have needed 5 minutes). What decided it was that his phone was offline for a 5 hour period, and hers was offline for a five hour period, but the two five hour periods were two hours offset from eachother. That was enough to raise doubt in my mind that they were being operated by one person the entire time. It just didn't make sense. Not that the story was strong enough to convict on, but just nothing added up.

So we found innocent, and the dude bawled, which was not surprising seeing as he was going to go up for 20 to life, I later heard. Worst of all I can't go to my favorite gas station because that's where she works. I guess we all came out losers in the end.

Except for me. I got $100.00. Sweet.

Dustpan

So my mom had a birthday, and I know she likes to try different things. My wife also is a baseball fan, so I figure, let's do some baseball. The first step was to see if anyone else was playing but the Reds. I checked Florence, I checked Dayton, and the only team with home games matching my schedule were the Reds. Fantastic.

So off we go, and it was a nice evening. We ate at Dismesh which is a new Indian restaurant and much cheaper and lower key than Ambar, but in the same area. My mom likes that spot even though it has failed repeatedly.

Then we go downtown and wander past the lonely abandoned storefronts. We wandered through Oktoberfest which looked kind of dull if you didn't go with your friends to get drunk. Finally we made it to the stadium.

It was a really nice stadium. We looked over the river. The evening was really nice. There was even a whiffle ball game between local mascots: the Princeton Viking, the Bearcat, Datagnon the Xavier Musketeer etc. All in all it was a great evening. Then they had to ruin it by playing Reds baseball.

Let me just say: I am so SICK of Dusty Baker baseball. The man not only screws up, he never learns. Bronson Arroyo pitches into the sixth with only a solo run. That was nice. Then he starts getting weak. He walks a guy, gives up a hit, then he sneaks his way out of it with a double play. Next thing you know he is trotting out into the eighth with a one run lead.

I said it. I could see it happening. I said: "Why is Bronson out in the eighth? Can't he throw in a reliever for one inning before we get to the overpaid closer? Can't he do that for once? Arthur Rhodes is available."

Next thing you know, lead off double, home run, Reds lose. What was that? This needs to stop. Okay, I know the relief pitchers are weak, but past the sixth with a one run lead, and a weakening pitcher? Come on. If you're going to lose, at least do what you're supposed to do. Bronson did his job, don't put this on him. Let the relief crew take the loss, but no...

Next season, Florence Freedom. No Reds. I'm sick of his crap.

This I Believe

I believe in change. I got a call from my father to deal with my pennies. My hobby in high school was collecting pennies. I collected them for three years and brought them with me in a canvas sack for my last week of high school. Then I took them home and left them under my bed where they stayed for nine years.
I didn’t know what to do with those pennies. When I was in high school my capitalist father urged me to wrap and cash them (ignoring the fact that I was trading cash for pennies). My grandmother heard that hoarding causes inflation and urged me to stop my antisocial behavior. Those ideas made no impression on me, and when I went to get the pennies from where my room used to be it wasn’t my idea.
I loved collecting pennies. I started when I was very young. Like most children I associated money with quantity. The more pieces of money I had the richer I was, like Scrooge McDuck diving into his coin vault. It started with breaking down my money into smaller denominations, then only pennies since that was the best way to increase the amount of money I owned.
But it was more than that. Pennies allowed me to reach out in a way that I couldn’t otherwise. Asking people for change gave me a way to approach them. My scary English teacher was happy to give me a cup of pennies from her car (two of which were glued to a cough drop). People in class who I didn’t talk to would hand me change, and while for six years I couldn’t talk to the pretty girl who sat in front of me, I could ask her if she had any pennies.
Now I know that counting pennies doesn’t make you rich. Instead I obsessively track my retirement portfolio. But as I wrapped each roll the feelings came back: who I was, the people I knew, and why it was important. I held onto these pennies for nine years because they were a part of the person I was.
Pennies are a medium of exchange. Their value is what we assign to them. I know that pennies aren’t memories. I know I was miserly to hold onto them for so many years, but as I wrapped them, I remembered the time when I was gathering them together.
I believe that I can change. I believe that the memories in those pennies made me who I am, but holding onto them is a way to hold onto the past without recognizing what it really means. I still don’t feel like letting go, but I must remember I can have the value without the objects. Besides even if I don’t have the pennies, I’ve still got one letter from the pretty girl I never spoke to.